At a Crossroads: Can Uddhav Thackeray’s Sena Weather the BMC Storm?

In a city once synonymous with its rise, Uddhav Thackeray’s Shiv Sena (UBT) now finds itself at a political crossroads, staring down an election that could shape its future.

After governing the resource-rich Brihanmumbai Municipal Corporation (BMC) for 25 uninterrupted years — from 1997 to 2022 — the Sena, once Mumbai’s undisputed civic powerhouse, is now a divided, beleaguered force. Mass defections, a leadership crisis, low cadre morale, and alliance uncertainties have created a perfect storm ahead of the BMC elections, slated to be held within the next four months as per Supreme Court orders.

Since the BMC came under state-appointed administration in March 2022, the Sena has split vertically. Deputy Chief Minister Eknath Shinde’s camp, now legally recognised as the official Shiv Sena with rights to its name and symbol, claimed 43 of the party’s corporators, including prominent figures like Ameya Ghole, Samadhan Sarvankar, and Sheetal Mhatre.

“The real challenge isn’t just defections — it’s rebuilding grassroots connections,” said Dr. Sanjay Patil, a Mumbai University researcher and expert on Sena politics. “Losing corporators dismantles the party’s ward-level infrastructure. Without a strong local base, even charismatic leadership can’t translate goodwill into votes. And in civic politics, proximity to power is everything.”

The damage isn’t limited to corporators. The party’s cadre structure — from shakha pramukhs to booth workers — lies in disarray, with no clear strategy for replacements. “Without power, it’s hard to stay relevant. And without visible leadership, it’s almost impossible to motivate voters and volunteers,” a former corporator still aligned with Sena (UBT) admitted.

A shakha pramukh from Dadar echoed the sentiment: “Many of us feel leaderless and abandoned. The leadership is distant, and the party’s direction is unclear.”

Even the party’s once-energetic youth wing, the Yuva Sena, led by Aaditya Thackeray, has lost steam. “Aaditya has charisma but lacks grassroots engagement. The rival camp attends every local event, strengthening its networks while we remain absent,” a party worker said.

Walking an Ideological Tightrope

Another challenge plaguing the Sena (UBT) is its ideological repositioning. In an attempt to broaden its appeal, the party’s shift from its core Marathi-Hindutva base hasn’t gone down well with traditional supporters. “The urban middle-class Marathi voter who backed Sena for its Hindutva politics is confused. Should they side with Shinde or Uddhav?” asked a voter from Mumbai’s Parel.

Yet, some party loyalists remain hopeful, believing that the manner in which the party was split — and the Election Commission’s decision to award the original party name and symbol to Shinde — has created a sympathy wave. “People know Uddhav Saheb’s work during Covid and his 25-year track record in Mumbai. This will reflect in the BMC polls,” claimed former corporator Anil Kokil.

The party is also banking on its opposition to contentious projects like the Aarey car shed and Dharavi redevelopment to resonate with its Marathi voter base. “This isn’t just about infrastructure. It’s about Mumbai’s soul,” said a senior leader.

But some insiders warn against overreliance on sentiment. “Sympathy without ground presence, credible candidates, and sustained voter engagement is a risky strategy,” cautioned a local Sena (UBT) leader.

Could a Thackeray Cousins Reunion Be a Game-Changer?

Amid the turbulence, whispers of reconciliation between Uddhav Thackeray and his estranged cousin, Maharashtra Navnirman Sena (MNS) chief Raj Thackeray, have resurfaced. Party functionaries argue that a reunion could consolidate the fragmented Marathi vote and rejuvenate the party’s demoralised ranks. The MNS, while not a major statewide player, secured 7.73% of the vote and seven seats in the last BMC election.

“There’s serious effort underway for a patch-up. Both parties know a split in Marathi votes would be disastrous,” a Sena (UBT) insider confirmed.

However, a merger won’t be simple. Key MNS leaders like Sandip Deshpande remain staunchly opposed. Moreover, reunification could alienate minority communities and non-Marathi voters whom Sena (UBT) has tried courting in recent years.

As Patil succinctly put it: “The question isn’t just about winning the BMC polls. It’s about whether Sena (UBT) can reclaim its identity, credibility, and political future in a rapidly changing Mumbai.”