Two years ago, the biennial Legislative Council elections in Maharashtra yielded surprising results, including the defeat of Congress’s Chandrakant Handore. Shortly thereafter, the Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA) government fell when Eknath Shinde led a rebellion that split Shiv Sena.

Now, the tables seem turned as the ruling Mahayuti alliance faces challenges, while the Opposition MVA aims to secure victories for all three of its candidates, potentially with support from MLAs in the ruling bloc defecting to Uddhav Thackeray’s Shiv Sena (UBT) or Sharad Pawar’s Nationalist Congress Party (Sharadchandra Pawar).

With 12 candidates vying for 11 seats in Friday’s elections, all three ruling parties have moved their MLAs to five-star hotels to prevent cross-voting, while the Sena (UBT) has consolidated its MLAs in one location.

“Crossover voting could occur if MLAs feel assured of receiving party tickets three months later,” a senior NCP leader commented.

The timing of the MLC polls is critical, coming just after the Mahayuti suffered setbacks in the Lok Sabha elections, where the opposition won 31 of the state’s 48 parliamentary seats, and months ahead of the Assembly elections.

Candidate Lineup and Numbers

The BJP has fielded five candidates: Pankaja Munde, Parinay Phuke, Yogesh Tilekar, Amit Gorkhe (Matang community leader), and Sadabhau Khot. NCP, led by Deputy CM Ajit Pawar, nominated Rajesh Vitekar and Shivajirao Garje. Shiv Sena has Bhawna Gawli and Krupal Tumane as candidates, while the Congress renominated Pradnya Satav and Sena (UBT) backed Milind Narvekar, a close aide to Uddhav Thackeray. Jayant Patil from Peasants and Workers Party (PWP) is also contesting.

Of the 11 MLCs set to retire on July 27, BJP holds four seats, Congress two, and one each by NCP, Shiv Sena, Shiv Sena (UBT), PWP, and Rashtriya Samaj Party. The Assembly strength reduced from 288 to 274 due to MLAs elected to Lok Sabha (7), deaths (4), resignations (2), and disqualification (1).

Under the preferential voting system, candidates need 23 first preference votes to win. Mahayuti claims confidence in securing nine seats, while MVA expects to win two, leaving both sides short for the 11th seat.

With support from Independents, BJP has 111 MLAs and needs four more votes for all five candidates. Shinde’s Sena, with 38 MLAs including the CM, asserts support from two Prahar Janashakti Party members and seven Independents, totaling 47 votes, enough for two wins. Ajit Pawar’s NCP has 39 MLAs and claims support from two Independents, five votes short for both seats.

In MVA, Congress holds 37 MLAs, securing one seat with 14 remaining votes. Narvekar’s Sena (UBT), with 15 MLAs, aims to secure the remaining votes, despite reports of discontent among three Congress MLAs. NCP (SP) has 13 MLAs, and PWP needs their support along with Bahujan Vikas Aghadi (3 MLAs), AIMIM, Samajwadi Party (2 MLAs each), and CPI(M) (1 MLA).