As voting in Haryana wraps up on Saturday, attention now shifts to the exit polls ahead of the results on October 8.

In Haryana, exit polls in 2014 accurately predicted the BJP’s victory, while in 2019, many pollsters miscalculated, anticipating a decisive BJP win instead of a hung Assembly.

In Jammu and Kashmir, where the last Assembly election took place in 2014, exit polls forecasted a hung Assembly, favoring the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) over the BJP, National Conference, and Congress.

Haryana

In 2014, the BJP ended the Congress’s decade-long rule, with an average of four exit polls predicting the BJP would narrowly miss the 46-seat majority in the 90-member Assembly. The polls estimated the BJP would secure around 43 seats, with the Indian National Lok Dal (INLD) as the runner-up at 27 seats and Congress at 13.

Ultimately, the BJP won 47 seats, and Congress secured 15, while pollsters underestimated the INLD’s performance, projecting it at 27 seats when it actually garnered 19.

Some polls, such as News 24-Chanakya and ABP News-Nielsen, suggested that the BJP would surpass the majority threshold. Times Now and India TV-CVoter accurately predicted Congress’s seat count, while News24-Chanakya came closest to the INLD’s final tally.

In contrast, the 2019 polls saw most predicting a resounding BJP victory, with projections exceeding 70 seats. However, the election resulted in a hung Assembly, with no party achieving a majority. Eight exit polls had the BJP’s expected count at 61 seats, while Congress lagged at 18. In reality, the BJP won just 40 seats, with Congress capturing 31, indicating an overestimation of the BJP’s performance by 21 seats and an underestimation of Congress by 13.

Seven polls forecasted the BJP would achieve a majority on its own, with NewsX-Pollstrat suggesting a win of 75-80 seats, whereas only India Today-Axis projected a more modest outcome of 32-44 seats. Only three polls anticipated Congress would exceed 20 seats, with just one suggesting it would surpass 30. India Today-Axis’s projection of 30-42 seats for Congress proved to be the most accurate.

Jammu and Kashmir

In 2014, during the last Assembly election in J&K, the CVoter exit poll predicted no party would reach the 44-seat majority in the then 87-member Assembly. The exit poll placed the PDP in the lead with an estimated 32-38 seats, followed by the BJP at 27-33, National Conference (NC) at 8-14, and Congress at 4-10. The actual results saw the PDP winning 28 seats, the BJP 25, the NC 15, and Congress 12.