Jammu and Kashmir will hold its first Assembly elections in over a decade, concluding on Tuesday with voting in the third and final phase. This phase features 40 seats, the largest of the three, with a significant concentration in the Jammu division (24 seats in Jammu and 16 in Kashmir).

The constituencies in the Valley, particularly in North Kashmir, have historically seen higher voter turnout compared to Central and South Kashmir. The candidates include those supported by the Jamaat-e-Islami as well as nominees from established mainstream parties like the National Conference (NC), Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), People’s Conference (PC), and the Congress.

In the initial two phases, eight Scheduled Tribe-reserved seats voted, while the last ST seat, Gurez, will cast its vote in this phase. Additionally, all seven Scheduled Caste-reserved seats in J&K, located in the Jammu division—Akhnoor, Bishnah, Kathua, Marh, Ramgarh, Ramnagar, and Suchetgarh—will also participate in this election.

At least eight seats in this phase have been either renamed or reconfigured following the 2022 delimitation exercise, with these 40 seats roughly aligning with 36 pre-delimitation seats.

In the 2014 Assembly elections, the BJP performed exceptionally well in these third-phase seats, securing 18 seats, followed by the PDP with seven, the NC with five, and the Congress, Independents, and Sajad Lone-led PC each with two. These seats, primarily in Jammu, were critical in helping the BJP win a total of 25 seats across the former state and form a coalition government with the PDP.

The BJP garnered a vote share of 32.86%, nearly double that of its nearest competitors. The Congress achieved a vote share of 17.25%, the NC received 15.56%, and the PDP got 14.51%.

In the 2019 Lok Sabha polls, the BJP led in 21 Assembly segments within the 40 third-phase seats, while the NC followed with eight and the PC with two. Engineer Rashid, running as an Independent from Baramulla, led in five Assembly segments.

As the first elections since the abrogation of Article 370 and the delimitation, the BJP again led in these 40 Assembly segments during the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, winning 22 segments, while the NC and Congress each won two, and the PC secured one. Engineer Rashid led in 13 segments, ultimately winning the Baramulla Lok Sabha seat.

In this third phase, a key contestant is Sajad Lone, who is running in his home constituency of Handwara and the adjacent Kupwara, which his party previously won in 2014.

Sopore, traditionally marked by poll boycotts, witnessed a vigorous campaign this time, featuring 20 candidates, including Aijaz Ahmad Guroo, the brother of Afzal Guru, who was executed for his involvement in the 2001 Parliament attack.

This constituency is one of five where the Congress and NC are engaged in a friendly competition. Engineer Rashid’s brother, Sheikh Khurshid, is contesting his first election from Langate, facing off against Jamaat-backed candidate Dr. Kaleem Ullah Lone. Rashid has been granted interim bail to campaign and is scheduled to return to Tihar Jail on October 2.

In North Kashmir, the campaign has focused on issues of “identity” following the abrogation of Article 370, with allegations regarding who is acting as a “BJP proxy” surfacing. Concerns about reservation policies and unemployment have also been significant.

In Jammu, key candidates include former ministers Tara Chand from Chhamb, Choudhary Lal Singh from Basohli, Surjit Singh Slathia from Samba, Sham Lal Sharma, Ajay Sadhotra from Jammu North, and Devender Singh Rana from Nagrota. The Nagrota seat features a competitive three-way contest among the NC, Congress, and BJP.

In Chenani, cousins Harshdev Singh and Balwant Singh Mankotia, both nephews of the late Professor Bhim Singh, founder of the J&K Panthers Party, are vying against each other.

Additionally, the presence of approximately 100,000 voters from the descendants of West Pakistani refugees, along with several thousand from the Valmiki and Gorkha communities who became eligible to vote for the first time post-August 9, 2019, will play a crucial role in the elections.

While the BJP is contesting all 24 seats in the Jammu region, the Congress has put forward 19 candidates, and its ally NC has fielded five.