In December last year, the Supreme Court set September 30, 2024, as the deadline for holding Assembly elections in Jammu and Kashmir, marking its first election in a decade.

Recent Lok Sabha election results segment-wise in Jammu and Kashmir indicate that if Assembly polls were held today in the Union Territory (UT), the National Conference (NC) would emerge as the largest party. With support from allies in the INDIA bloc like the Congress and Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), they would have sufficient seats to form a coalition government in the 90-member House.

Since 2014, the region formerly known as Jammu and Kashmir has not held Assembly elections and has been under central rule since June 2018, following the withdrawal of BJP’s support from the Mehbooba Mufti-led PDP coalition government. In August 2019, Article 370, granting special status to Jammu and Kashmir, was revoked, leading to the bifurcation of the state into the UTs of Jammu and Kashmir and Ladakh.

In the Lok Sabha polls for Jammu and Kashmir’s five seats, BJP and NC each won two seats, while an Independent candidate, Sheikh Abdul Rashid (popularly known as Engineer Rashid), secured one seat.

Vote shares stood at 24.36% for BJP, 22.3% for NC, 19.38% for Congress, and 8.48% for PDP.

Segment-wise voting data indicates NC and BJP would lead in Assembly elections now. NC is ahead in 34 segments, BJP in 29, Congress in seven, PDP in five, and People’s Conference (PC) led by Sajjad Lone in one. Engineer Rashid led in 14 segments.

The INDIA bloc (Congress, NC, and PDP) would hold 46 segments collectively, just above the majority mark of 45.

It’s notable that BJP and Congress contested only in Jammu and Udhampur Lok Sabha seats, likely expanding to more seats in the Kashmir Valley for Assembly polls. NC, allied with Congress, contested all three Valley seats, while PDP contested Anantnag-Rajouri and Srinagar seats after failing to reach a seat-sharing agreement with NC. The future of NC-PDP alliance in Assembly polls remains to be seen, but NC-Congress alliance is expected to continue.

In the 2019 Lok Sabha polls breakdown, NC and BJP led in 30 segments each, Congress in 16, PDP in four, and PC in two. Independents led in five segments.

In the 2014 Assembly polls, PDP emerged as the largest party with 28 seats in the then 87-member House (pre-delimitation), with a 23.85% vote share. BJP followed with 25 seats and 26.23% vote share, extending support to PDP. NC and Congress, former allies, contested separately, winning 15 and 12 seats respectively. NC secured 21.14% vote share, while Congress managed 18.36%. Other parties like CPI(M), PC, and Independents won the remaining seven seats.