Ahead of the Manipur Assembly session, internal dissent within the ruling BJP has resurfaced as Chief Minister N. Biren Singh left for Delhi on Wednesday. His visit follows a trip by state Rural Development and Panchayati Raj Minister Y. Khemchand Singh, a vocal critic of Biren, who was reportedly summoned by Union Home Minister Amit Shah. Last week, Manipur Speaker and BJP leader Th. Satyabrata Singh also met Shah in Delhi.

With the session set to begin on February 10, discontented BJP leaders, frustrated with both Biren’s leadership and the Centre’s handling of the ongoing Manipur crisis, have intensified pressure on the party. A dissident BJP MLA from the valley warned, “For two years, neither the state nor the Centre has offered a clear roadmap for peace. Instead, they distract with promises to ‘seal the border,’ ‘implement the NRC,’ or ‘launch a war on drugs.’ If nothing changes before the session, something unprecedented will happen.” Another BJP MLA added, “Over two-thirds of the party’s MLAs are dissatisfied. The turmoil is unbearable, and action is inevitable.”

Manipur has been grappling with ethnic violence between Meiteis and Kuki-Zos since May 3, 2023, resulting in over 250 deaths and thousands displaced. The 10 Kuki-Zo MLAs have boycotted Assembly sessions since the strife began and are unlikely to attend the upcoming one. Following the recent passing of NPP MLA N. Kayisii, the remaining 49 MLAs include 30 from the BJP, five from its ally Naga People’s Front, one from JD(U), two Independents, five from the Congress, and six from the NPP, which withdrew support from the Biren government last year.

As political tensions rise, the Congress has been closely monitoring the internal strife within the BJP. AICC in-charge of Manipur, Girish Chodankar, stated, “We lack the numbers for a no-confidence motion, but we know over 10 BJP MLAs oppose the CM. Our Political Advisory Committee is evaluating the situation and will act at the right time to restore stability.” Manipur Congress president K. Meghachandra confirmed that a potential no-confidence motion would be discussed at the upcoming Congress Legislature Party (CLP) meeting.

Former Chief Minister Okram Ibobi Singh accused Biren of “threatening” MLAs against supporting a no-confidence motion. However, sources in the central BJP dismissed any immediate leadership change. They pointed out that at the North Eastern Council meeting in December, Amit Shah reaffirmed Biren’s leadership, urging other Northeast CMs to support Manipur’s border security initiatives. With former Union Home Secretary Ajay Bhalla now serving as Manipur’s Governor and overseeing developments, the Centre is focused on restoring normalcy, including cracking down on troublemakers from both Meitei and Kuki groups.

Since taking office, Governor Bhalla has led a major administrative reshuffle, including replacing the state’s Chief Secretary. Meanwhile, Biren’s Delhi visit is reportedly aimed at securing the Centre’s support for resumed infrastructure projects, along with additional funds for development and security measures.

Disqualification Proceedings

Nine MLAs supporting Biren’s government are currently facing disqualification proceedings. Five JD(U) MLAs defected to the BJP in 2022, prompting the Congress to file a petition for their disqualification. The Speaker has fast-tracked hearings, with the final session set for February 7.

The Congress has also sought the disqualification of four of the six NPP MLAs. While NPP National President Conrad Sangma officially withdrew support from the BJP, five NPP MLAs expressed their desire to remain in the Treasury benches. The Speaker has since sought Sangma’s response, further complicating Manipur’s political landscape.