In the recent Haryana elections, the Congress and BJP targeted distinct voter blocs—Congress aiming for Jat-Dalit votes and BJP focusing on non-Jat OBCs. However, Congress miscalculated, though the expected damage from two alliances—the Indian National Lok Dal (INLD)-Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) and the Jannayak Janata Party (JJP)-Aazad Samaj Party (Kanshi Ram) (ASPKR)—did not materialize as feared.

Both alliances sought to capture the same Jat-Dalit vote base, but an analysis of the results shows that neither had much influence. In 12 seats where the INLD-BSP alliance placed third, garnering more votes than the victory margin, Congress lost to BJP in only four. In the remaining eight, Congress managed to defeat the BJP.

Both alliances performed poorly overall. JJP failed to win any seats, with its leader Dushyant Chautala finishing fifth in his stronghold of Uchana Kalan. The INLD secured just two seats. Their Dalit-focused allies, BSP and ASPKR, failed to win any seats, with the latter making its Haryana debut and gaining only a marginal share of votes.

The combined vote share for INLD-BSP in Haryana stood at 5.96%, while the JJP-ASPKR alliance received only 1.05%. JJP suffered due to backlash over its past alliance with the BJP after winning 10 seats in 2019. JJP’s vote share dropped to 0.9%, and ASPKR, attempting to expand beyond Uttar Pradesh, gained only 0.15%.

Despite both INLD and JJP being led by members of the influential Devi Lal family, which has traditionally commanded Jat votes, and BSP having secured significant Dalit support in previous elections, their impact was minimal.

In constituencies where Congress won and BJP lost, with INLD-BSP securing more votes than the victory margin, seats included Adampur, Fatehabad, Hathin, Julana, Kalanwali, Loharu, Naraingarh, and Sadhura. Olympic wrestler Vinesh Phogat contested from Julana on a Congress ticket.

Conversely, in seats where Congress lost and BJP won, including Assandh, Barwala, Narwana, and Yamunanagar, INLD-BSP received more votes than the victory margin. The JJP-ASPKR alliance finished third and got more votes than the victory margin in only one seat, Dabwali, where INLD’s Aditya Devilal narrowly defeated Congress candidate Amit Sihag by 610 votes.

In two other seats—Jagadhri and Panchkula—where Congress defeated BJP, Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) candidates finished third with more votes than the winning margin. BJP had won both these seats in 2019.