While exit polls predict a return to power for the Congress party in Haryana after a decade, the incumbent BJP is skeptical, aiming for a hat trick in the state Assembly elections. With vote counting set for Tuesday, here are five key aspects to keep an eye on in the poll results.

Congress’s Chief Ministerial Candidate if Successful
The Congress party faces an internal competition for the Chief Ministerial position, a struggle that was evident throughout the campaign leading up to the October 5 elections. Key contenders for the CM post include Leader of the Opposition Bhupinder Singh Hooda, AICC General Secretary Kumari Selja, AICC General Secretary Randeep Singh Surjewala, and Hooda’s son, Deepender.

Although the Congress high command will ultimately decide the CM candidate if the party wins, the aspirations of these candidates will depend on the party’s overall performance. Hooda played a significant role in selecting more than 72 candidates from the 90 seats, all of whom may support him if they succeed. He also led the Congress campaign.

Potential Fallout for the BJP
A defeat would be a significant blow for the BJP, which has never formed a government in Haryana for three consecutive terms. The party campaigned under the leadership of CM Nayab Singh Saini, its OBC face, and state party chief Mohan Lal Badoli, a Brahmin leader. The BJP aimed to consolidate the non-Jat vote bank, wary that Jats might not support them due to the farmers’ movement.

The results will also reveal the impact of a decade’s worth of “anti-incumbency” against the BJP. In 2019, the party lost nearly all its ministers, except for then-CM Manohar Lal Khattar and Home Minister Anil Vij.

Other Parties, Alliances, and Independents
The JJP partnered with the Azad Samaj Party for these elections, while the INLD formed an alliance with the BSP. After unsuccessful alliance talks with Congress, the Aam Aadmi Party contested independently. However, the main contest appears to be between the BJP and Congress, with exit polls predicting a potential washout for other parties.

The results will be vital for the future of regional parties like JJP and the INLD, as well as indicating the AAP’s standing in its founder Arvind Kejriwal’s home state. Several notable Independents are also competing, including BJP rebels Ranjit Singh (Rania) and Savitri Jindal (Hisar), along with Congress rebel Chitra Sarwara (Ambala Cantonment).

Key Poll Issues
The Congress campaign focused on pressing issues such as unemployment, the Agnipath scheme, the farmers’ agitation, the wrestlers’ protest, and various alleged scams over the past decade. Conversely, the BJP highlighted its social welfare initiatives, including timely disbursement of pensions, crop loss compensation, and crop procurement at minimum support prices (MSP).

A contentious issue was the government’s e-initiatives for the public, such as the Parivar Pehchan Patra and Meri Fasal Mera Byora portals, which faced backlash. The Congress has pledged to shut these down if they return to power.

Star Candidates and Dynastic Politics
One of the most closely watched contests is the debut of Olympian wrestler Vinesh Phogat, who is running from the Julana seat on a Congress ticket. Her candidacy resonates strongly with voters due to the previous year’s wrestlers’ protest over alleged sexual assault by then BJP MP Brij Bhushan Sharan Singh, as well as her disqualification at the recent Paris Olympics.

Several young candidates from prominent political families are also in the spotlight, including Shruti Choudhry and Anirudh Choudhry, grandchildren of former CM Bansi Lal, and the Chautala family members Dushyant, Digvijay, and Arjun, all contesting from various constituencies.

These factors will be crucial in determining the outcome of the Haryana elections and their implications for the state’s political landscape.